One number is a guess; a range is a plan
The mistake I see most often is a single-point cash forecast presented as fact. Investors and boards don't believe it — and they shouldn't. What they trust is a model that shows the range of outcomes and the levers that move between them.
Building a useful model
- Base, upside, downside — each tied to explicit assumptions, not optimism levels
- Driver-based so you can flex revenue, churn, and hiring independently
- Weekly cash at the line level, not monthly aggregates
- Trigger dates — the specific runway milestones that force a decision
What it buys you
A good scenario model lets you walk into a board meeting and say: here is what we do if the September round slips. That single sentence is worth more than any spreadsheet formula.